← Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
decks
3
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1418
· median 1353
· range 1340–1560
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1241
Q3 1432
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
